Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Updated Ranking - Governor 2010

As promised last week, the following is my updated list of possible gubernatorial candidates. I’ve made changes since Election Day and also after seeing the newest voter registration statistics. Please note, these are not in order of who I think would be the best governor of Iowa, these are in order of who I think has the best chance of winning without sacrificing conservative ideals.

#9 – Christopher Rants affected Iowa Republican politics and campaigns more than almost anyone else. He’s been the go-to-guy in the Iowa legislature but either the stars were aligned against him or he was ineffective in his leadership. I didn’t have Rants in the original five, in fact, I called him a non-starter. I still believe he is a non-starter but since he lost his leadership position, he may take a shot at a statewide race.

#8 –Chuck Larson, Jr. – As I wrote in my last ranking, Chuck hasn’t been involved in Iowa politics lately and that definitely hurts him. I don’t know what he’s going to do after his current gig but I just don’t think he’s the guy to lead us into 2010.

#7 –Bruce Rastetter was instrumental in helping Republicans save seats in Des Moines this election cycle. If he were to pursue the Governor’s office his past contributions to Democrats would surely come up. We could maybe dismiss a $100 contribution to Amanda Ragan but $25,000 to Chet Culver? That alone puts him down the list for many.

#6 – Bob Vander Plaats is running. In fact, he’s never really stopped running for Governor. He’s never been able to garner enough support to win a primary but maybe a third time’s a charm. And remember, I still have a little competition going on where whoever guesses closest to the day Bob officially makes his formal announcement of his 2010 gubernatorial bid, can have my blog for a day. Just email constitutiondaily@gmail.com.

#5 – Although Matt Whitaker would make a great candidate, I don’t think he’s going to do it. He’s got a great job right now and after looking at registration numbers and the perceived dysfunction in our Party, he’ll pass this time around. I can’t wait until he gets back into politics though!

#4 –Mark Pearson has what it takes to be the next governor of Iowa but he also may choose to wait and see. He’s the type of guy who could get in a little late if he had very good staff and fundraising. Someday Pearson will be representing Iowans.

#3 - I had Congressman Steve King at number one in my original ranking. I still think he’d be the best governor of Iowa but I just don’t want him to leave that wacky place we call the U.S. House of Representatives. King has gone where he is needed his entire political career and the House seems to fit him very well. Nobody has ever questioned King’s campaigning abilities and energy but they have questioned his fundraising ability. This last election proved he can raise money, allowing him to do what he wants. I just think he is sitting out on this one.

#2 –Congressman Tom Latham had an awesome election this time around garnering 61 percent of the vote. He’s well known throughout the state and is now sitting in a very good spot to take on Culver. He is in a similar position as King though and may decide to sit this one out as well. He’d be a very tough opponent in both the primary and general elections.

#1 –Bill Northey is already a rock star to Republicans across the state. He’s won a statewide race in a tough year. Northey has very good conservative credentials and won’t have to prove that to any of us. If Northey jumps in early, he has a great chance of clearing out some other heavy hitters.

As you can see, my ranking has changed a bunch since before the election. Northey and Latham weren’t on the list. The last election jumbled the political map, causing these changes.

By the way, the other day I was thinking it would be great if Northey ran for Governor and Pearson ran for Sec. of Agriculture – anybody out there have the pull to make this happen? How about you Mr. Rastetter?

After reviewing the list I have to say I’m proud of all of these guys. That is one heck of an impressive list and if I’m Culver, I’m shaking in my boots. Bring on 2010!

31 comments:

Anonymous said...

Your Vander Plaats clock is despicable.

What a joke.

Northey, Latham, King are not running. Not going to happen.

Vander Plaats will be our nominee. Mark my words.

noneed4thneed said...

Who is Mark Pearson? I know everyone else on that list except for him.

Anonymous said...

I don't know what's despicable about the Vander Plaats clock - it's the truth! Bob is going to be the new "Mr. 3000"!!!

Also, don't count Whitaker out just yet.

Matt! Matt! Matt!

Ghost of Christmas Future said...

I see this site turning into another Caucus Cooler.

Raising expectations for those you are afraid of and then lowering them for your true candidate.

Somewhere between your rankings 3-5 your true candidate lies...

Culver is screwed! said...

I'd be thrilled if any in the top 5 were to run. That is an impressive list of public servants!

John said...

Past contributions to Dems, even small, are primary poison. Look what happened to Peter Teahen.

Anonymous said...

The day Vander Plaats is our nominee is the day the republican party dies once and for all

Anonymous said...

I am interested to know why annon 12:54 hates Vander Plaats so much? I think most people in the grass roots of the party disagree with you.

Anonymous said...

I'm not anon 12:54, but I'm not sure he's saying he hates Bob as much as he's saying that it will never happen. It's kind of like "when pigs fly". Your grassroots can like him as much as ever, but it hasn't helped him the last two times, and I doubt it will be enough this time either.

Anonymous said...

We will have to wait and see. But people like anon 12:54 underestimate him at their own peril. I think most of the people who bash Vander Plaats on the blogs are would be campaign staffers who are afraid of him because they know he won’t hire them. For those anon posters, it is all about who signs their next paycheck. Vander Plaats wont sign it, they know it and that’s why they hate him. Coincidently, that is also the reason why those of us in the grassroots love him. We are sick of ungrateful, over paid staffers coming into our counties and telling us what to do, how to think and expect us to be grateful to them for gracing us with their presence.

Let me be the first on this blog to say this:

Vander Plaats 2010!

Anonymous said...

I would love to see Vander Plaats as the nominee so that he could get beat once and for all. I'm tired of hearing his lame ass excuses for why we don't win. Put him on the ballot, let him suffer a Reed-like loss and be done with this clown.

Signed,

Not an over-paid staffer

Anonymous said...

Bob has never had enough money in a campaign to "over-pay" anyone...

Anonymous said...

To all you Vander Plaats kool-aide drinkers out there (and your out there)I have one question for you. If Vander Plaats is so popular with everyone why isn't he a two term governor today?

Aspiring Staffer said...

I don't know when Rants ever "sacrificed conservative ideals". He is the perfect pitbull to take on Culver and the D's right now with their reckless spending. He should be in the Top 4

Anon 2:25, That's awesome! I would love to be overpaid by BVP. It would like being paid to go to church!

The Royal Bookworm said...

It is a good list - several plausible candidates, though King would have a competitive disadvantage in a general election, considering how the media (Des Moines Register, etc.) has consistently demonized him.

And while I do like others on your list, Northey certainly deserves the spot at the head - if he could take the Sec. of Ag. position away from the Democrats in 2006, he should be able to sweep the polls in a less-Democratic 2010.

Anonymous said...

Bob Vander Plaats will never be Governor, nor will he be the nominee. Get over it already.

The Power Rankings forgot to mention Dave Vaudt. I think he's in the top three. King, Northey and Vaudt. Those are the most likely leading candidates.

Anonymous said...

Mark Pearson? As in Mark Pearson, the fat guy that does the farm show on WHO? Seriously?!

I agree with Vaudt. We'll know he's serious if he starts wailing on Culver in the knock-down, drag-out fight coming up over the budget. That could be his ticket to Terrace Hill right there.

Warren County GOP said...

Hate BVP all you want 9:01. I'll bet you are one of the same idiots who said "Kent Sorenson has no chance of winning, get over it."

In 18 months, hes going to make you and the other "experts" look stupid just like Kent and Huckabee did.

Anonymous said...

You mean President Huckabee?

Anonymous said...

Kent Sorenson won only because the Democrats didn't spend any money. They won't make that mistake again and he's a one-termer. BVP won't have that luxury.

Anonymous said...

Can anyone answer me this...DOES BVP HAVE A REAL JOB?

Anonymous said...

Now you're bashing Sorenson? You guys really are a joke. You hate everyone who dosent think and act just like you even after they win.

HawkeyeRepublican said...

I'm surprised you dont have Dave Vaudt on this list...

Here's the guy that's been sounding the alarm bells and whistles for years about the state budget and how we're heading for a financial mess...and it looks like he's being proven right.

The thing about Vaudt that drives the Dems nuts is that no one can touch the guy's credibility. If there's anyone in this state who could take the Dems to school about the state budget..it's Vaudt.

Personally, I think Latham has no interest in running for Governor...I think he has his eye set on a US Senate seat in the future..

King..I think he's interested..but the guy also knows that he could hold on to that House seat as long as he wanted.

Mark Pearson? No name ID outside of the farm community..

Rastetter? Same problem..low name ID.

Northey..I think he's interested as well..however..I believe that he would be better served running again for Sec of Ag.

I would love to see Matt Whitaker run for Attorney General. His stock has gone way up especially after his successful prosecutions of the CIETC figures. Tom Miller would have a fight on his hands if Whitaker ran against him.

Rants/Larson Jr...not generating any interest or enthusiasm here.

BVP...Well..he's running..he's told people flat out that he is. However, he's bordering on turning into our version of Harold Stassen.

Personally, I wish he would have decided to run for RPI chair..He's got a great track record of turning around organizations..and could do a great job at RPI doing the same.

Anonymous said...

BVP is probably the best candidate in the list. Hawkeye is right about King and Latham, I doubt either will run. Based on the interview Northey did with IAPolitics.com it sounds more like he is moving away from the possibility of running than he is moving toward it.

I have no idea who Pearson is, same with Rassetter (sp?).

Rants? I've never voted for a Democrat in my life but I would be inclined to do so if he were the nominee. Rants is to the Republican legislative caucus as Gopal Krishna is to the SCC.

I like Whitaker a lot but I don’t see him running. It isn’t a foregone conclusion that Obama will replace him as the US Attorney ... He may not. Replacing him would free him up to run for something which would put Culver, Miller, the 3rd Congressional District in jeopardy. Larson creates the same complication. After all, Ambassador to Latvia is hardly a coveted post. Obama may be best to keep them both in their jobs rather than free up strong candidates against his friends.

On Vander Plaats, Huckabee gave him some creditability and probably saved his political life, but this is probably his last chance. If he fails to raise the money or win the nomination this time, he’s done. But the fact remains, Vander Plaats is a good speaker and he is widely respected in the grassroots. He has a very loyal following and he’s proved that he is willing to support the party nominee after the primary. I’m inclined to give him 1 last chance in 2010, but if he cant put it together this time it will be time for him to move on.

Bob's getting wiser with age said...

I'll give BVP some credit this time.

It sounds like he is actually putting together a legitimate campaign this time and not letting his sunday school run the show. I think that's a step in the right direction.

Get ready to play with the Big Boys Bob!

The Jimador said...

No Rathje??? Alright I was just messing with you on that one...

Seriously no Vaudt?

Pearson, I have doubts. Heard him on the radio the other day, great radio personality but not governor material.

Dark Horse: Iverson

Anonymous said...

What's Bob's "legitimate campaign"?

Please enlighten us...if it really is a legit team, I'll cut him some slack and give him a chance.

Real Conservative said...

This time BVP has the backing of the Huckabee organization, ICA, and IFPC. That bodes well for a GOP primary.

The last two times he had 3rd rate hacks running his campaign and they were all political has beens.

Go Bob!

Anonymous said...

King is probably the most exciting and could probably win a statewide Republican primary. There is none any more revered among Republicans than King.

Can he win a statewide general election? That is the question. Of course, it's the question for all of them.

Anonymous said...

Gov. Mike Huckabee even told people back in Iowa that if Bob runs, he'll come back and campaign for him. Just think, the guy who won the Iowa caucuses who is also a great speaker and for the middle class will go to a lot of cities and towns with Bob and rally up the vote. Who does Culver have? Even the Dems in Iowa like Huck. With Huck on the campaign trail, the local media will give Bob more publicity. Bob was smart to get on board the Huckabus.

Anonymous said...

Bob's supporters are growing. He has Peter Teahan's endorsement and Bill Salir's. He basically has all the co-chairs or chairs of Mitt Romney's, John McCain's, Tandcredo's, Thompson's and Brownback's campaings. He has great organization. Watch out Constitution Daily. Bob will show how pathetic your power rankings are.